Uh oh! Where did that triangle go?
I'm sitting here trying to digest my chicken tender dinner from the famous Foley Coffee Shop and I can't help to chuckle a little at what happened to everyone who bought the (false) breakout of the symmetrical triangle yesterday. I expressed my concern yesterday that volume was light on the breakout. That was a clear warning. Once the breakout failed, traders who bet on the pattern abandoned their long positions. By the way, that's exactly the right thing to do. The question now is what's next? Well, the good news is that the sell off today was not on heavy volume either. Most of it was just the same traders who bought in yesterday getting stopped out today. What we'll look for now is if the symmetrical triangle turns into a larger pattern and perhaps a slightly different version called an ascending triangle. With the high of this reversal coming yesterday afternoon at roughly 1291 it matches the high on July 23rd, so we have two matching tops. The bottoms, however, are a series of higher lows. As long as that's the case, the pattern could continue to form a larger "ascending triangle", which is bullish as well. If 1255 is violated to the downside then the probabilities favor a complete failure of the initial pattern. But if the S&P holds in there and moves above 1291 it could be game on for a quick move up. I still favor a bullish outcome from these patterns we're seeing, but I'm keeping an open mind. I'll leave you with this question. How many calories does a chicken tender dinner w/fries, salad w/thousand and a roll have? It sure feels like a lot!

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