After watching it rain most of the morning I headed out to my favorite fine dining hide out, the famous Foley Coffee Shop. As I exited the front of my office you can imagine my alarm when I realized the tied up goat was gone and he'd stolen my truck! Not one to ignore the more important things in life...like lunch...I simply hitched a ride with a one legged guy next door on his Harley. Unfortunately for him, he had just fallen over on his bike and looked like he could use some help, so it's probably good I was there. After mumbling something about the kickstand being on the wrong side we were off. It wasn't lickity split before we were pulling up into the parking lot of my 5 star destination when low and behold what did I find but my truck with that blasted goat inside listening to CNBC! When he saw me he did one those crazy freezing up things that goats do when they're really scared and fell over like he was dead! Knowing that was a temporary state, I seized the moment, slung open the door and dragged his hairy tail out to the back bumper where I promptly tied him up. As I headed inside he started coming to and began bleating something about commodities coming back and I'd be sorrrrry! Once inside, and glad I'd found my truck, I found a few of the boys eager to hear what was going on. They'd heard oil was moving back up fast and wanted to know if they should start hoarding after lunch. I asked where they heard such frightening nonsense to which they answered that a certain "well connected" goat had been giving economic forecasts behind the building. Shrugging that off I pointed out that it's time for the "parabolic test". Yes I made that name up. The point is, most of the time when a parabolic price break occurs, there comes a time for the first significant rally back up. That may be now in commodities. What happens is that the shorts get squeezed first followed by excited buyers who missed the first move up and ARE NOT going to get left behind again. Excitement builds and bullishness rushes back in..until....the uh oh moment arrives. That occurs when the rally runs it's course and selling enters the fray again. It's uh oh for those who have jumped on board and soon they'll be toast. See, there are a lot of people who bought oil at 120-147 who'd LOVE the chance to be made whole and get out. If offered the chance they may just take it. If they do, the uh oh moment will be here and oils fate, along with probably most commodities, will be sealed. This is how parabolic price charts treat people. Not in a kind way. Until and unless oil surpasses its high in July, this scenario will be in play. As the boys pretended to be satisfied with my explanation, they wanted to know about stocks and that blasted triangle pattern that just won't die? I said I'm tired and hungry and smell like a goat so I'd have to get back to them on that after I eat my chicken and rice.