Trendlines are made to be broken
Well, things sure are getting interesting. Lots of traders are on vacation the next two weeks so the volume will be lighter than it otherwise would be. The bears tried to capitalize on that today with a run right through some important trend lines and were only stopped by the (almost) last line in the sand. If you draw the bottom trend line as generous as you can at the intra day low July 28,29 across the low August 4th you intersect todays low at about 1274 on the S&P. The Dow's pretty much the same story. If this trend line is violated, price may be collapsing out of the rising bearish wedge early. If this is truly a credit collapse for the ages then this development shouldn't be that big of a shock. HOWEVER, the short term bull isn't dead yet, it's just on life support. Volume was very light today on the sell off. I mentioned the reasons above. AND, if the last rising bearish wedge trend line is violated there is ONE more (if you can believe it) trend line to watch for. That would be the one that would turn this advance into a "trend channel" where the advancing trend lines are parallel and sloping upward. That number is currently about 1260 and rising on the S&P and maybe 11,350 on the Dow. So, the market either rebounds from here towards 1320 from todays low of 1274.....or from the last trend line at 1260 for the bull to live. If not, a retest of the July low of 1200 in the S&P and 10,850 in the Dow will be in the works. If that occurs it will be quite a battle as the "double bottom retest is good for the soul group" will be out in full force. But I'm telling you, if 1200 fails, even Larry Kudlow may fall over like one of those scared goats! I'd pay good money to see that. Wouldn't you?

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