After taking most of the weekend off for a tropical storm and my wife's birthday on Saturday, I thought I'd bring you up to date on what I see. That "last line in the sand" trend line appears ready to give way. The light volume bear assault today just about did it in. It'll take an immediate move higher to keep any bullish hope alive for the potential this trend line held.  At this point, I'm assuming a solid break is imminent, and as is usually the case the market appears to be heading into the next pattern. There's almost always a next pattern. In this case it appears to be a head and shoulders (H&S). The head formed on August 11, the left shoulder on July 30th, and the right shoulder started down today. Any immediate push further down between 1247 and 1235 will convince me. The Dow has a similar setup. The numbers there are 11,220 and 11,120. That push down could probably be bought for a 2-3 day up swing back up to near the top of the shoulders. This could literally play out over the next 4 trading days to end August. It would look like this....down hard tomorrow to my support numbers followed by the rally Wed, Thurs and Fri and boom...August is finished. The market would then be setup for a September volume surge and the chart would be staring down at the July lows begging for a retest. If that happens, it would form an even larger H&S pattern with the neckline at 1200 on the S&P and 10,800 on the Dow. A break of that neckline would setup a potential 100 point drop in the S&P and over 1,000 points in the Dow. I know this is looking out a little but the potential is real. It could unfold a little differently, but I'm not going to get into all the various scenarios. A hard break down tomorrow will be a big clue I'm probably on to something. I'd be careful being long oil here. With the dollar solidly above it's 200 day moving average and the right side of oil's parabolic chart pulling down on it, there's probably better trades. Also, if you haven't visited the investment strategies page of our website, you need to do so. If you have a better track record than the programs we utilize then maybe you don't need me. Any way, this is what you need to know today.