Light volume trend day helps bull case
As I mentioned last night, you may want to keep your powder dry in this highly unpredictable light volume environment. Today is an example of why. The bears got hammered all day on light volume. Volume jumped in the last few minutes as the "end of day" trades I'm sure were the bears running for the hills. It's possible tomorrow could do the same, although Dell's report after the bell has big cap tech getting beaten like a rented mule in after hours trading. That could change overnight. Any how, trading in a light volume environment around holidays is riskier than usual. The numbers I mentioned last night, 1291 and 1300 on the S&P, were important today if you noticed. 1291 was resistance early. Once it was over come there was nothing between that and 1300 where it settled. So now what. 1313 is the next spot I'm watching. It would match the high of three weeks ago and form a potential double top and also represent the head to another H&S pattern. Also it would be just above the daily bollinger band which is currently at 1310. If you go back and look, that's been as good a spot as any to mark at least short term tops. However, I can't help but think that this market wants to do more. It's just been gnawing at me for some reason. It's very likely the double bottom at 1200 crowd got to confident in a decline to that level and tried to get short ahead of the move. Some long/short fund ratios I look at suggests that. A move through 1320 would suggest a move to 1349. That would clean out a lot of bears and create a lot of new bulls. That could happen easily next week, especially if oil continues to drop in spite of a threat of a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which is what happened today. The right side of a parabolic chart is a powerful thing. Oil bulls found that out today as they thought they had a "gimme" trade with a hurricane coming towards the oil fields. Any how, watch that daily bollinger band on the S&P and those Fibonacci numbers of 1321 and 1349. Even if the market sells off hard tomorrow, I'm not sure we've heard the last from them.

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