Have you ever heard the saying "where the rubber hits the road"? It refers to that little patch of rubber on the bottom of your automobile tire where it comes in contact with the road surface. It's what matters most at any given moment when you're driving down the road. So, if you're driving down the road, going around a curve at a high rate of speed and suddenly have trouble with "where the rubber hits the road" well, you understand the difficulty you quickly find yourself in. Right now Lehman is where the rubber hits the road and as I write this we're speeding around a curve. We know the tire's going flat. We just don't know whether it's going to go flat slowly and allow us to pull over and replace it, or if it's going to blow out and spin us into the ditch. We should know by Monday morning, perhaps even later tonight. The Fed and Treasury are feverishly trying to work out a deal for Lehman that doesn't involve taxpayer dollars. So far it doesn't appear to be going well. If no buyer can be found and the Fed and Treasury refuse to intervene further, Lehman may file bankruptcy by midnight tonight. What happens after that is truly anyones guess. If Lehman files and the markets function normally it'll be a tremendous boost to confidence and may lead to a massive equity rally. But if Lehman files and the markets seize up, well I wouldn't want to be real "long equities". No one knows the outcome yet. Watch Bloomberg for the news and then watch Asia and the futures. And if you're prone to praying like I am, you may want to try that too.