I don't believe what I just saw!!!
I didn't post after Friday's action because there was nothing to add. Thursday night I said it was just about now or never. Friday tried to make it "now" until it reversed down into the close. Today tried to make it "never" with the markets down 8% or so at one point until rallying towards the close. I don't think I've ever seen a weaker 500 point rally in the DOW. It certainly didn't look or feel like a classic capitulation day with a reversal. The volume just wasn't there on the rebound. You may disagree, but that's how I see it. It SHOULD have been a legitimate reversal. All indicators are screaming "mercy". New 52 week lows on the NYSE were at least 50%. That's a staggering, historic type number. I'm seeing different numbers quoted from different vendors so we'll leave it at that. Probabilities favor todays lows holding for a while. A tradeable rally should be at hand. It's possible we'll see one more move down that's met with panic buying from the big money, assuming there's any left. If you bought at 1075 you may have been stopped out or just scared out of your wits watching the deterioration today, but you're not that much underwater. To trade this will take guts and nerves of steel. Any move back towards todays lows that reverses sharply could be bought. Any move up near 1200 should be sold. The final low should be far below these levels. Be careful. I really believe just about any outcome is possible right here.

Comments