I didn't blog last night as I had covered yesterdays potential market move the night before. The market has embarked on the path I suggested would be my preferred one...a re-test to 875 or so and then a multi-month move up. The multi-month part is of course very debatable, but so far so good. The problem is I'm doubting what I'm seeing. Here are my reasons. First, this manic depressive market doesn't feel like it's bottomed for some reason. Second, option expiration is tomorrow and probably affected price movements today. Third, the pattern that just jumps off the page at me right now is a 4th wave triangle. That's a technical formation that suggests a slightly further move up followed by a wave 5 thrust to lower levels. If this reversal today wasn't the real thing then this pattern is the most likely outcome. It actually would be almost to good to be true as it would take the S&P toward the sub-800 level. This would carry the move down from the top to the 50% retracement level, just like 1929. That would be an unquestionable buy and should represent the final low of this phase one move. Speaking of 1929....only one other time, before now, in the last 100 years has the DOW lost 6.5% or greater in a 30 day period. Anybody want to take a wild guess when that was? November 1929 when the phase one bottom was being forged. Coincidence? Take a look at this chart courtesy of Sentimentrader.com. It may be a picture of our future.