Triangle operational
I noticed that in my last blog I left out something in my haste to finish. I meant to say that only once in the last 100 years, before now, had the Dow lost 6.5% or more THREE TIMES in one month. The chart had it right, but I apologize for the important omission. Nothings really changed from my Thursday night blog. The 4th wave triangle appears to be in play right now. If so, we can expect some up and down gyrations that track smaller and smaller ranges. That tighter range may end with a downside break to retest the lows and possibly exceed them. It really doesn't have to break the low of 840, and in fact I'll be surprised if it does. That would just be to easy of a setup. I'm really expecting that if the breakdown comes 840 will hold and a strong move up will follow. That would finish this phase one decline in my book and set up a nice intermediate term rally to as high as 1200. You'll have to be quick to catch this retest. I don't expect price to be at those levels long. If it happens to blow through to sub 800 on the S&P, don't worry. It'll be back in a hurry. The other alternative is for the triangle to fail and prices break higher from here. If that occurs a weaker retest may develop in a couple of weeks. We'll follow that later if it develops. Volume on the up move today was anemic. That's another clue the triangle formation may pan out. I think we'll have our answer in a few days at the most. Panic seems to be subsiding and I'm seeing lots of bulls already. That's worrisome...the bulls I mean. I can only wonder how many bulls we'll have if the up move gets going in earnest. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

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