Something more sinister may be happening

You know I've suggested a fourth wave triangle may be in play. In fact it looks pretty much how I suggested it would play out up until this point. Triangle forms, breaks out to the downside briefly to test the bottom and then ZOOM....we all get rich. Well, the downside break occurred today and the test is in progress, but I have a problem. There may be something more sinister going on. It's called a bearish pennant or flag formation. This is a much more bearish pattern as it would suggest the 840 bottom was only the halfway point. I know that sounds crazy, but this pattern is a real possibility. We had a waterfall decline on heavy volume to form the "flag pole", pointing down in this case. We've had consolidation on decreasing volume in a narrowing pattern to form the pennant. Today we broke out to the downside on heavier volume just as this pattern should if it's occurring. You see, it's a continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern. That's the problem. Buying the 780-790 level if reached could turn into huge losses if we're only halfway to the real bottom. So I'd say this, be careful. If you buy the "retest" at some level and the market blows through 780 without much pause, I'd get out. I can promise you this, if the 780-790 level fails you're going to find out what real panic is. Look at the example of a bearish pennant formation below and compare it to the still developing "line chart" (very important) of the S&P. You can go to Stockcharts.com, type in $spx, make the chart daily, make it a line graph. What do your eyes tell you?



 

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