I'm writing from my perch in the great Smoky Mountains near Gatlinburg, TN. Although I didn't follow the markets tick for tick today, I caught enough to know that this rally may have legs. But this is a "show me" market in my opinion.

It's like a relative or friend who keeps making promises but never keeps them. After a while no one believes and it becomes an "I'll believe it when I see it" relationship. Can anyone out there relate?

As a result hardly anyone believes this rally is real. But that's exactly the condition this market has to create if it's going to sustain any rally in this historically difficult environment.

So what now. The S&P is sitting at an important level, 850. It represents the 840-850 breakdown level and now it's major resistance. If the market can power through that level soon then better days may be ahead, at least for a while. There should be A LOT of overhead supply of stock right here, so it should be a struggle. We'll see.

That being said, our unreliable relative or friend has just made us another promise. Are we going to let down our guard and just trust them?  I don't know about you, but I'm not.

So keep an eye on any longs and watch out for that all to familiar pattern of failure. Maybe this time it'll work out.