Is the stock market dying right before our eyes? Probably not, but it feels like it in some ways. I've long said that if this decline was comparable to the 29-32 period then the market would appear to be dying as we moved through the process of finding a final low. This would happen as the public abandons stocks and the liquidation by institutional investors grinds on month after month. Volume would shrink near the end as everyone gives up on stocks......forever. The final low.....75%-90% below the all time highs. You do the math. You wouldn't believe it if I typed it. 

This is, in fact, exactly what I expect to happen. You may think I'm crazy and if you do I'm fine with that. All I know is that when I input every piece of data, historical and otherwise, into my brain that's the outcome I keep getting.

If I'm right there will be enormous opportunity for those who still have capital to deploy at those levels. I can promise you that you won't feel like deploying when that time comes. You'll be scared stiff like the rest of the (former) investing class. A fortunate few will act. Most will not. 

The market action today, while obviously very bearish, may actually be setting up a nice trade. 820 is the last clear support on the S&P before it heads for the retest of the 740-750 area. Any move near 750 could be bought for the "double bottom retest is complete trade".  I'd look to exit that on any move back up near 850. There also could be a trade from 820 back up to 900. Take your pick.

I don't expect the market to penetrate the November lows on the first attempt, even though the financials may. I do expect those lows to fall later this spring. However, the market has been exhibiting unusual weakness on this rebound from November so I'm not counting anything out just yet.