"From here on out it looks like SMOOTH sailing!"

If you watched Gilligan's Island as a kid you should recognize that phrase. Gilligan always confidently expressed it right before disaster struck. I sort of feel like Gilligan today.

The move back below 850 on the S&P today is definitely a blow to the bulls, but not a death knell. People have been getting killed on both sides of 850 for so long now. It seemed like we had finally put that number to bed with yesterdays action, but apparently not.

If I had been paying attention I would have given more weight to the rising wedge pattern that had been forming on a 60 minute chart. It broke out to the upside yesterday like the pattern would suggest and then collapsed back through both trend lines to the downside today, again just like the pattern would suggest.

I just didn't believe it would complete the pattern. I was so sure that I didn't even mention it. I saw it, I just thought it wouldn't amount to more than a trip back to 860. I am truly surprised it retraced back below 850.

That being said, I still believe a date with a higher price is likely, probably around 910-920. That will be an incredibly important number if and when its reached as it would complete the symmetrical triangle pattern I mentioned last night.

But for now, I won't be surprised if the market takes the bears for another ride with a trip back above that magic number....850. It was the bulls turn today as all those who bought the breakout were burned. Let's see who gets theirs tomorrow. 
 

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