Support holds for now

The bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern offered support for the S&P today saving the markets from further weakness, at least for today. The Dow penetrated it's lower trend line however and the transports are already below their November lows. This is a very weak market.

My best guess here is that a solid break of todays lows will lead to a retest of the Dow and S&P November lows. That's a level that will be bought aggressively if reached and would provide the bulls with a double bottom formation to hang their hat on. They'll be making the comparison to the 2002-03 bottom, which would look similar on the charts. That, however, would be about the only similarity.

To say that the economy is much worse now than the 02-03 period would be an insult to your intelligence. That should be obvious to everyone. There is no comparison. We are light years worse off now than then. It's like comparing the flu with a terminal illness. I hope you understand that point.

As a result, any double bottom will bring out jubilation and cheers and then, unlike 2003, it will fail. How far it's able to advance before failing is yet to be known. We'll follow it if it develops that way. 

The other possibility is that the market finds it's footing right here and blasts up to the upper trend line of the pattern, around 910-920.
That would make for an interesting battle at those levels. It's a real possibility too. One huge 60 minute candle to the upside is all it would take to launch that trip, so be alert.

Regardless, any substantial move higher would be a gift to lighten up on long positions one holds as I believe this market will eventually go lower than even the most bearish expect.  
 

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