"You can't keep a good market down" (Is that a song by any chance?)
Buyers swarmed in late to rescue the market from the clutches of the evil decline right at the 50 day moving average! It was the last (and most important) swing in a pretty wild day. It's also exactly how you can expect this "new" market to act.
I know it's been a while so you may not recognize it. Let me introduce you to it. It's called bull market behavior. That's right. I said "bull market". I should probably have my key board washed out with soap just for typing it!
No, I don't think is the beginning of a new "secular" bull market, which is one that could last years. This is simply a "cyclical" bull market within an ongoing "secular" bear market. It's life should be measured in months, not years. But man can it move straight up when it wants to! It can tack on several years of gains in its short life. The trick is knowing when to get out.
I'll be focusing on that in the weeks ahead. What you need to know tonight is that this advance is very real and powerful. The next stop should be 875. That may begin as early as tomorrow. After that we should see the first meaningful retracement, probably back to near 800. And no, 875 shouldn't be the final price high.
That being said, an awful lot of people are getting bullish really quickly. That's got a lot of people very bearish. Understand? Well, anyway, the market may not punish these overzealous bulls just yet like it would if this were a 6 day bear market rally. They actually get away with being overly bullish early in a cyclical bull. The buyers rushing in just seem to overpower the normally bearish implications of "too many bulls too fast".
However, be prepared just in case the market decides to throw us a curve ball. That would come in the form of a waterfall decline that slices back down through the 50 day moving average and just keeps going. I count this as a very low probability event right now. The 50 day simple moving average is currently 795. It would then have support at 775, so it wouldn't be a free fall.
If you're long right now, enjoy the ride. The winds at your back, and it's been a while. If you're short, you better good.
I know it's been a while so you may not recognize it. Let me introduce you to it. It's called bull market behavior. That's right. I said "bull market". I should probably have my key board washed out with soap just for typing it!
No, I don't think is the beginning of a new "secular" bull market, which is one that could last years. This is simply a "cyclical" bull market within an ongoing "secular" bear market. It's life should be measured in months, not years. But man can it move straight up when it wants to! It can tack on several years of gains in its short life. The trick is knowing when to get out.
I'll be focusing on that in the weeks ahead. What you need to know tonight is that this advance is very real and powerful. The next stop should be 875. That may begin as early as tomorrow. After that we should see the first meaningful retracement, probably back to near 800. And no, 875 shouldn't be the final price high.
That being said, an awful lot of people are getting bullish really quickly. That's got a lot of people very bearish. Understand? Well, anyway, the market may not punish these overzealous bulls just yet like it would if this were a 6 day bear market rally. They actually get away with being overly bullish early in a cyclical bull. The buyers rushing in just seem to overpower the normally bearish implications of "too many bulls too fast".
However, be prepared just in case the market decides to throw us a curve ball. That would come in the form of a waterfall decline that slices back down through the 50 day moving average and just keeps going. I count this as a very low probability event right now. The 50 day simple moving average is currently 795. It would then have support at 775, so it wouldn't be a free fall.
If you're long right now, enjoy the ride. The winds at your back, and it's been a while. If you're short, you better good.
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