Well that winds up the first quarter of 2009. The S&P finished down a little over 11%. The Nasdaq faired much better as it was barely negative. You'd think that would be a bullish sign. I don't believe it is.

I've long felt that the nasdaq would show relative strength at some point during this bear market. The reason? The Nasdaq got bombed out 80 some odd percent in the 2000-2002 decline. The Dow only dropped 38%....the S&P 50%, and that was mainly due to tech weightings. Tech already paid the price.

This bear is all about the Generals. It's their turn behind the woodshed. In fact, that may be a good argument for those who believe the secular bull topped in 2000, made an "A" wave down into late 02, a "B" wave up into November 07, and now this is the ferocious killer "C" wave to end all "C" waves. I suppose I could argue that, but I won't. I'll let you do that with your e-mails!

The market rallied today on the last day of the month. I don't expect it to hold. I think we'll see more weakness ahead to shake up some of those complacent bulls I've seen wondering around. After that it may finish this up move. You know the numbers.

But somethings bothering me tonight. A very good friend of mine with some of the best instincts I've ever seen is feeling like somethings up. This is a spiritual stirring relating to economic issues he's experiencing, and he's troubled by it, and that troubles me. And if you knew him like I do you'd be troubled too. Take my word for it.

So I'm on alert tonight. I'll be watching for signs of a sudden collapse. Perhaps he's just picking up on the future downturn we already expect. But perhaps it's closer than we think. What do you think? Anybody out there picking this up?