It ain't no "Bank stress test". It's a "Bear stress test"!!!
The beating continued for the bears today (sorry Sam) as the money continues to pour back into equities with reckless abandon. It makes no sense, of course, so don't bother trying to find a good reason. Price is going up for one reason...because it's going up.
Frenzies like this are easily created in our financial world today. They're becoming so common that some investors probably think it's normal market behavior. Think tech bubble, real estate bubble, oil and commodity bubble....am I missing any?
This is a result of a combination of cyclical human behavior and reckless Central Bank monetary policies. Both have been advancing with more and more irresponsible behavior over the years. What were seeing now is just the end game.
As a result we will probably continue to see massive mis allocations of capital resulting in other bubbles that expand and then burst. The only question is "what's the next bubble"?
There's a real possibility that it's right in front of our eyes.....equities.
Equities are certainly exhibiting "disconnect" qualities that all bubbles have. When prices rise in a bubble the price advance has no basis in economic reality. Now, that won't keep CNBC from trying to explain why the move is "warranted" and probably "permanent".
Remember the NASDAQ at 5,000? Everything was "price to sales" instead of the "price to earnings" and the only argument was how long it would take before it got to 6,000.
Remember oil at $140? The world was running out of oil and it would soon top $200. (Oil demand is DOWN 8% year over year by the way)
Remember real estate? It CAN'T go down, it just can't! It ALWAYS goes up. I think we know how that one's playing out.
So....with the price action in equity markets around the world it begs the question "are stocks next"? Perhaps.
Only a few weeks in and already the market is exhibiting the bubblicious "grind higher each day regardless of the news" mentality. Every dip is being drooled upon as "free money" just laying there. There's no fear of losing money. And there certainly is a disconnect with economic fundamentals when a bank is told they need to raise over $30 BILLION in new capital and the stocks rallies....a lot.
If this is the next bubble, I believe it will be shorter than some of the others. I expect the top by September. However, price could rise another 35% from here. That takes the S&P to 1200.
So, once the market gets through 945 you better hang on. This could be one for the ages.
p.s. Remember that any correction in here will be sharp and violent so be on alert.
Frenzies like this are easily created in our financial world today. They're becoming so common that some investors probably think it's normal market behavior. Think tech bubble, real estate bubble, oil and commodity bubble....am I missing any?
This is a result of a combination of cyclical human behavior and reckless Central Bank monetary policies. Both have been advancing with more and more irresponsible behavior over the years. What were seeing now is just the end game.
As a result we will probably continue to see massive mis allocations of capital resulting in other bubbles that expand and then burst. The only question is "what's the next bubble"?
There's a real possibility that it's right in front of our eyes.....equities.
Equities are certainly exhibiting "disconnect" qualities that all bubbles have. When prices rise in a bubble the price advance has no basis in economic reality. Now, that won't keep CNBC from trying to explain why the move is "warranted" and probably "permanent".
Remember the NASDAQ at 5,000? Everything was "price to sales" instead of the "price to earnings" and the only argument was how long it would take before it got to 6,000.
Remember oil at $140? The world was running out of oil and it would soon top $200. (Oil demand is DOWN 8% year over year by the way)
Remember real estate? It CAN'T go down, it just can't! It ALWAYS goes up. I think we know how that one's playing out.
So....with the price action in equity markets around the world it begs the question "are stocks next"? Perhaps.
Only a few weeks in and already the market is exhibiting the bubblicious "grind higher each day regardless of the news" mentality. Every dip is being drooled upon as "free money" just laying there. There's no fear of losing money. And there certainly is a disconnect with economic fundamentals when a bank is told they need to raise over $30 BILLION in new capital and the stocks rallies....a lot.
If this is the next bubble, I believe it will be shorter than some of the others. I expect the top by September. However, price could rise another 35% from here. That takes the S&P to 1200.
So, once the market gets through 945 you better hang on. This could be one for the ages.
p.s. Remember that any correction in here will be sharp and violent so be on alert.

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