It's time

The consolidation pattern in the S&P has been running for several days now.  It's about to come to an end.
The question is which way does it break, up or down?

This pattern usually is a continuation pattern, which means the break would be to the upside. But "usually" isn't "always".

The breadth and especially the volume have been lagging badly. That could be a clue. It's certainly not bullish.
The only thing bullish about the action is that price hasn't broken down yet, but that's what matters most now isn't it.

So once again we wait on Mr. Price. He'll have the last say and he should be speaking soon.

One thing I'm watching for if prices break up is one last thrust up in stocks and a thrust down in bonds. That could take the S&P towards a 38% retracement level and take the TLT (20 year Gov bond ETF) to a 4.5% yield (by taking the price of TLT down to around $82).  That would be a great time IMO to sell stocks and go long TLT.

Whatever happens, I think we'll have an answer soon.



 

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