I can't stop eating watermelon long enough to type!
Let me start off by saying Michelle, my beautiful wife, seems to be feeling better tonight. Let's pray it lasts. Her pain from the bulging disk in her neck has been excruciating. Thanks to all who have voiced their concern and offered their prayers.
I'm sitting here trying to type but I'm having a hard time. My mother, who lives nearby, cut up some watermelon and sent it home with me today. It's very, very good.
I'll sum up the equity markets tonight by stating the obvious...the bulls are in charge. The move over the last 10-12 trading days has made it clear to me that this is a cyclical bull market that has further to run. It's simply a matter of how long it lasts and how high it goes.
At this point it's pretty simple to me. You can buy any weakness. There may not be much until 1015 is hit, which is roughly the 38.6% fib retracement number. The battle will probably carry on there for a while, but I doubt it'll cap the move.
Now that I sound nothing but bullish and feel guaranteed that the market will continue higher, we have to be alert that we haven't been sucked into a trap.
The pattern I've considered the market to be operating in is the famed broadening top. Well, it's right at the top where it could begin a vicious decline if it so chooses. If that happens, the line in the sand will be the bottom trend line on that pattern. That's currently around 860.
In fact, if it occurs and actually reaches that level, I'd be a strong buyer of that trend line support until it broke.
This is an interesting juncture we're at. Both stocks and gold are sitting on huge inverse H&S patterns. If the dollar breaks down in here it may be a moon shot for both. The problem is that the dollar may not cooperate.
Another thing to keep in mind is that as impressive as this rally has been, it, so far, has been no stronger, and perhaps even weaker, than the 50%, five + month rally out of the 1929 low. People were just as excited then as they are now. You know how that ended.
I'm sitting here trying to type but I'm having a hard time. My mother, who lives nearby, cut up some watermelon and sent it home with me today. It's very, very good.
I'll sum up the equity markets tonight by stating the obvious...the bulls are in charge. The move over the last 10-12 trading days has made it clear to me that this is a cyclical bull market that has further to run. It's simply a matter of how long it lasts and how high it goes.
At this point it's pretty simple to me. You can buy any weakness. There may not be much until 1015 is hit, which is roughly the 38.6% fib retracement number. The battle will probably carry on there for a while, but I doubt it'll cap the move.
Now that I sound nothing but bullish and feel guaranteed that the market will continue higher, we have to be alert that we haven't been sucked into a trap.
The pattern I've considered the market to be operating in is the famed broadening top. Well, it's right at the top where it could begin a vicious decline if it so chooses. If that happens, the line in the sand will be the bottom trend line on that pattern. That's currently around 860.
In fact, if it occurs and actually reaches that level, I'd be a strong buyer of that trend line support until it broke.
This is an interesting juncture we're at. Both stocks and gold are sitting on huge inverse H&S patterns. If the dollar breaks down in here it may be a moon shot for both. The problem is that the dollar may not cooperate.
Another thing to keep in mind is that as impressive as this rally has been, it, so far, has been no stronger, and perhaps even weaker, than the 50%, five + month rally out of the 1929 low. People were just as excited then as they are now. You know how that ended.

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