First, let me thank all of you who expressed your concern and compassion for my wife, Michelle, as she's faced some pretty serious surgery. Her surgery was yesterday, Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. I'm happy to report that she came through fine and is recovering well. We both appreciate the kind e-mails and phone calls.

I've been unable to get to this blasted blog with everything else going on, but tonight I'm making time. So here goes.

What do you get when you mix a three month broadening top (on it's last wave up) with a rising bearish wedge on the 60 minute chart (that's been running the upper trend line but broke down late) with extreme bullish sentiment readings? Potential trouble, that's what.

That's the shape the S&P finds itself in tonight...overbought and under feared. That may change as early as tomorrow.

A move back to at least 956 could begin as early as like...now. We'll just have to see. The setup is absolutely there.

A breakdown right here could be potentially ominous as there is currently a Dow Theory non-confirmation in place. Yes, I'm aware Richard Russell has issued a buy signal. My position is that he was early. He used the June high as the point to be bettered. I believe it's the January high. (my thanks to Mr. Wood) Those two don't often disagree, but they (respectfully) do on this call right now.

This has been an incredibly persistent trend. It's acted more like a commodity move than stocks. That speaks to the shear momentum that drives equities now. That's because we're in the later stages of "the great stock market experiment" we've been a part of for over 20 years now. When it's over, no one will want to own stocks. That time is yet to come.

So be careful here if you're real long equities. We're about to sit in on a test.