If there were any doubt about the validity of the broadening top pattern the market has (possibly) been in, it was put to rest today. The pattern now appears unmistakable.

A broadening top is a reversal pattern. The only question is the reversal of what? Does it mark the end of the move from the March lows, or does it mark the halfway point of an a-b-c move, this being the end of "a"?

This is going to be the $64,000 question in the days ahead. I have an opinion, but it comes with a qualification, or perhaps warning is the better term.

All things being equal, my guess would be that this is the end of the "a" wave, a "b" wave down will follow now and then the "c" wave will storm higher leaving a trail of bears in its wake.

BUT...things may not be equal.

You know I've compared this era to the 1929-32 era. The similarities are many. Well here's the problem. This is the point where after rallying 50% from the November 1929 lows, which was a decline of 50%, that the market rolled over into the worst death spiral of the last 100 years or so and dropped 80% into the lows of 1932.

So my qualification would be this....a "b" wave here that corrects more than 50% of the March rally would be a "tell" to me that trouble was brewing. That number would be about 842. 

Being were moving towards the September-October time frame anythings possible I suppose. 

My best guess, however, is that the market will correct into early September and then catch everyone by surprise by rallying into and through the "feared" period. 

But beware.