Test of highs coming?

The market staged an impressive reversal today, and on pretty good internals too. The main part of the price move occurred late, but the market was strong internally most of the day. That was a clue price would hold up.

This reversal is occurring with quite a few oversold readings, so there's fuel for a fire. Was today a big enough spark? There's no doubt it could be.

The monthly employment report, or should I say UNemployment report, comes out in the morning and could be a market mover. If it's "in line to better" the markets could come to life from these oversold levels and make a swipe at the losses from Tuesday, setting up an assault on the highs early next week.

But to do that the markets will have to rally on good news, something that hasn't occurred lately. That's one of the reasons I felt that the top might have been in for now. So tomorrow will hold a key piece to the puzzle.

Gold has also broken out of it's triangle pattern to the upside. That's exactly what that pattern suggested would happen. Now it's time to see if the larger pattern is a massive inverse H&S or a double top. A move above the all time highs in Gold will leave no doubt as to the answer. A failure and...well...it would get ugly quick.

Many people believe Gold is responding to impending inflation. I doubt that's the case. The reason I say that is because other commodities have been, and continue to be much weaker than the precious metal.

It's more likely to be a fear trade at this point, and threatens to become a momentum trade. The key will be how the rest of the CRB components react if the breakout continues.

So if you're short equities tonight be careful. And if you're long gold...make sure it doesn't reverse on you. 



 

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