After falling back down through the 38% retracement off of the NOVEMBER 08 lows Thursday (1060) and struggling with the 1045 level Friday, the market sprang a light volume surprise on the bears today. Is it a sign of what's to come? Maybe.

A hard breakdown from here would be very bearish, but will it happen? The move up today was tepid at best and primarily short covering. Tonight I'd have to guess it would break back down.

But I've seen this movie before and the ending can change on a dime. If the shorts are forced to cover again tomorrow the melt up could continue. So if you're short, you better have a tight stop.

There's a lot of data coming out this week that could give a light volume market a shove one way or the other, so don't be surprised if volatility picks up a bit.

So be on your toes. This is a fairly important juncture.