Hanging on by a thread and the thread held
Today was one of those rare days where the market really stared off into the abyss, and survived. I don't mean to sound dramatic, but that's how I see it.
Some of the oversold indicators approached and actually exceeded the fall 08 readings. All the while, price had finally started to catch up to the downside yesterday, breaking the uptrend line from the March low and setting up today...October 29, 2009...80 years to the day from Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929. (Of course yesterday was 80 years to the day since Black Monday, October 28, 1929) You know, I didn't hear much about that on CNBC or any where else. Did you?
Crashes happen from oversold conditions as all support gives way and a cascading effect downward takes hold. That could have easily happened today. It didn't.
Regardless, tomorrow is the end of the month and I am apparently on the hook for my observation of what has happened each time the market has crossed and closed either above or below the 20 month moving average (the middle line on a monthly bollinger band, currently 1053)). I know, I know. One days close is a pretty narrow indicator on which to hang ones hat. I'm simply pointing out what has happened in the past.
The recovery today was impressive as buying came in just below the 50 day ma and propelled the market back into the ascending wedge channel. That's pretty hard to do as the bottom of the channel should have provided more resistance.
So tomorrow may tell us something. A quick reversal from todays rout of the bears could re-ignite ghosts of 80 years past. It doesn't look likely tonight, but you never know. Thread may not be as strong as it appears.
Some of the oversold indicators approached and actually exceeded the fall 08 readings. All the while, price had finally started to catch up to the downside yesterday, breaking the uptrend line from the March low and setting up today...October 29, 2009...80 years to the day from Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929. (Of course yesterday was 80 years to the day since Black Monday, October 28, 1929) You know, I didn't hear much about that on CNBC or any where else. Did you?
Crashes happen from oversold conditions as all support gives way and a cascading effect downward takes hold. That could have easily happened today. It didn't.
Regardless, tomorrow is the end of the month and I am apparently on the hook for my observation of what has happened each time the market has crossed and closed either above or below the 20 month moving average (the middle line on a monthly bollinger band, currently 1053)). I know, I know. One days close is a pretty narrow indicator on which to hang ones hat. I'm simply pointing out what has happened in the past.
The recovery today was impressive as buying came in just below the 50 day ma and propelled the market back into the ascending wedge channel. That's pretty hard to do as the bottom of the channel should have provided more resistance.
So tomorrow may tell us something. A quick reversal from todays rout of the bears could re-ignite ghosts of 80 years past. It doesn't look likely tonight, but you never know. Thread may not be as strong as it appears.

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