The story of the day has to be Gold. The move up today on news that India was a large buyer was impressive to say the least. But is this an initiation or an exhaustion move?

The counts differ on gold. One count, the inverse H&S count, runs up to $1,300. Another count, the "flag" count, also yields a number in that range. But another count, one that assumes the consolidation that began with the February 09 high was a symmetrical triangle, only counts up to about here, near 1085.

So it's up in the air tonight. A strong move above 1100 may give the answer. A sharp failure, perhaps after tomorrows Fed announcement, could give a vote for the triangle. Remember to keep an open mind. Gold is an emotional thing for a lot of good people. For what it's worth, regardless of which count is correct right now, I believe gold will eventually go much higher and perhaps meet the Dow at some point in the future.

Stocks have been exceptionally weak in the face of SEVERE oversold conditions. The Buffett news of him buying his own personal train set put a bid under transports, which had been leading to the downside. They happened to bounce right off the 200 day ema, an expected support level even before the news. We'll see how it sticks.

There's a couple of camps that the bears are in tonight. One is that the top has been seen and the bear is back. The other is that one more new high is coming first in 2010. The best trader I've ever seen is in the first camp. He knows who he is. The best statistical guy I've ever seen is in the second camp. I suppose I have a foot in both camps. Maybe they won't beat me up to bad.

So tomorrow could be pivotal. Watch the language regarding quantitative easing (QE) coming out of the Fed meeting. It could give this thing a shove one way or the other.  In fact I expect it will.